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Claims Modeling

Find out what your claims history can predict.

Our team turns years of submission and claims files into verified data, tests what separated the losses, and builds a model from what holds up, for your own systems or for Lexcel.

WorkbenchSubmissions
Search recordsTable
Illustrative workbench: submissions from a claims study, each with many extracted fields and the status of each value.
NameAnnual RevenueYears ActiveLiability CapClient Sign-OffSafety-CriticalPrior ClaimsRetention
Tollwick Robotics$52.6MVerified11VerifiedNo capVerifiedInformalVerifiedYesVerified0Verified$50,000Verified
Pellingrove Robotics$58.4MVerified14VerifiedNo capVerifiedInformalVerifiedYesVerified2Verified$50,000Verified
Kestrova Systems$41.9MVerified9VerifiedNo capVerifiedWrittenVerifiedNoVerified1Verified$50,000Verified
Tarnwell Automation$33.0MVerified17VerifiedNo capVerifiedInformalVerifiedYesVerified3Verified$50,000Verified
Lumitrove Software$47.1MVerified12Verified$5MVerifiedWrittenVerifiedNoVerified1Verified$50,000Verified
Wexholt Design$12.4MVerified13VerifiedNot statedInformalVerifiedNoVerified1Verified$25,000Verified
Vesperline Robotics$72.6MVerified8Verified$10MConflictingInformalVerifiedYesVerified1Verified$75,000Verified
Brennick Controls$29.4MVerified21Verified$2MVerifiedWrittenVerifiedYesVerified1Verified$50,000Verified
Halvoran Systems$38.8MVerified6Verified$3MVerifiedWrittenInconclusiveNoVerified1Verified$50,000Verified
Brayford Systems$36.2MVerified8VerifiedNo capVerifiedWrittenVerifiedNoVerified1Verified$50,000Verified
Marlowick Software$24.7MVerified10Verified$1MVerifiedWrittenVerifiedNoVerified0Verified$25,000Verified
Tessamere Systems$61.3MVerified19Verified$5MVerifiedNot statedYesVerified2Verified$75,000Verified
Rows per page251–25 of 5,240

A study first,
and a model only if the data supports it.

Extract the data

Agents extract every value onto workbenches your team can search, each linked to its source. Your team keeps this data, whatever the study finds.

Explore the workbench
WorkbenchClaims
Illustrative workbench: claims from a study, each with its verified type and source file.
InsuredClaim TypeClaim Notice
Pellingrove RoboticsSoftware defectVerifiedpdfClaim 24-0312.pdf
Lumitrove SoftwareData lossVerifiedpdfClaim 22-0950.pdf
Kestrova SystemsProject delayVerifiedpdfClaim 23-0127.pdf
Brennick ControlsInstallation errorVerifiedpdfClaim 21-0536.pdf
Tarnwell AutomationInstallation errorVerifiedpdfClaim 24-0088.pdf
Wexholt DesignDesign errorVerifiedpdfClaim 23-0611.pdf
Halvoran SystemsSoftware defectVerifiedpdfClaim 22-0274.pdf
Vesperline RoboticsSoftware defectVerifiedpdfClaim 23-0442.pdf
Tessamere SystemsData lossVerifiedpdfClaim 22-0718.pdf
Tessamere SystemsProject delayVerifiedpdfClaim 24-0196.pdf
Uncapped risks

JRJordan Reyes

Pull our claims on risks with no liability cap.

Lexcel agent

Listed Submissions(1 filter)
Listed Claims
Read file →Claim 24-0312.pdf
Read file →Claim 23-0127.pdf
Read file →Claim 24-0088.pdf

Here they are, marked in the table.

Lexcel agentClaims

Ask Lexcel…

Find what held up

We compare what you had at underwriting on risks that led to a claim and risks that did not. The findings show what beat chance, what made no difference, and what to request at submission.

Your firm’s work
Bound policies
1,284
Quotes
3,912
Claims
184
Endorsements
2,050
  • pdfKestrova Systems, Application.pdf
  • pdfTarnwell, Client Agreement.pdf
  • pdfBrennick Controls, Loss Runs.pdf
  • pdfPellingrove, Claim 24-0312.pdf
  • pdfBrayford Systems, Policy 2023.pdf
Study findings

What separated risks that led to a claim

  • Held up

    No liability cap in client agreements

  • Held up

    No written sign-off on delivered work

  • Held up

    Claims in the last five years

  • Needs more data

    Safety-critical systems

  • No difference

    Years active

Recommendation

Build a claims model

Request at submission

  • Liability caps
  • How work is signed off

Build the model

If the data supports it, we build a model to guide selection and pricing, tested on held-back files. Use it in your own systems or in Lexcel, where each new submission gets a rating, drivers, and source pages.

Explore workflows
WorkbenchSubmissions
Illustrative workbench: submissions on the desk with their claims rating, stage, and annual revenue.
NameClaims RatingStageAnnual Revenue
Tollwick RoboticsYellowQuoting$52.6M
Pellingrove RoboticsRedUnderwriting$58.4M
Kestrova SystemsYellowNew submission$41.9M
Tarnwell AutomationRedQuoting$33.0M
Lumitrove SoftwareGreenBound$47.1M
Wexholt DesignYellowQuoting$12.4M
Vesperline RoboticsYellowUnderwriting$72.6M
Brennick ControlsGreenNew submission$29.4M
Halvoran SystemsGreenBound$38.8M
Brayford SystemsYellowNew submission$36.2M
Claims modelTollwick Robotics
RatingCloser reviewYellow
  • Raises

    No liability cap in client agreements

    Client Agreement §11
  • Raises

    No written sign-off on delivered work

    Application.pdf p. 6
  • Lowers

    No claims in the last five years

    Loss Runs.pdf p. 1

A fraction of the time and cost,
reviewed by our team and open to your actuaries.

Actuarial analysis at this depth has taken a large team a year or more. Agents do the reading, so a lean team of experts gets you to an answer far sooner.

We review the method and results, and your actuaries can review them too. The model and findings are used only for you, and your data never trains a general model or reaches another customer.

Questions teams ask about claims modeling

Can our claims history predict which submissions turn into claims?

Sometimes, and finding out is the first job of a claims study. Lexcel tests which details you had at underwriting separated the risks that led to a claim.

The findings cover what held up, what showed no difference, and what to request at submission, with a recommendation on what to do next. Lexcel does not guarantee predictive performance, and your underwriters make every decision.

How many claims does a claims study need?

It depends on the line and how strong the effect is. Claims are thin across much of specialty, so a small count can point to trends worth testing without supporting a reliable score. The first phase shows how far your data goes and what more it would take to go further.

What if our data cannot support a claims model?

You keep the findings and the dataset, on workbenches your team can search. Lexcel then configures a workflow that compares each live submission with past claims. That workflow does not produce a claim probability, but it puts the closest history in front of the underwriter.

Do we have to use Lexcel to run the model?

No. Lexcel does the analysis and builds and tests the model, and you can implement it in your own systems. Running it in Lexcel is the simplest path, because the rating, its drivers, and its source pages sit on the submission record.

Does a claims study replace our actuaries?

No. Much of what separates one specialty risk from another sits in documents that rarely reach a model. A claims study turns those files into structured, source-linked data for your actuaries to work with. Lexcel reviews the method and results, and your actuaries can review them too.

Is a claims study an actuarial opinion?

No. It is analysis to support underwriting decisions, not a statement of actuarial opinion, a rate filing, or a reserve study. The model can guide selection and pricing, but your team and your actuaries set the rate. If you or a capacity partner need an independent model rebuild or a challenger model, that is scoped separately.

Who owns the structured underwriting history?

The organization that produced the work product owns it. Agentic AI runs on that organization's materials, under its control. Claims history and internal analysis are among the categories of data that require the highest care.

Connects everywhere you work,
and works with your existing systems.

  • Salesforce
  • Origami Risk
  • Applied Epic
  • Outlook
  • SharePoint
  • Box
  • Google Drive
  • OneDrive

Security and compliance

Built for enterprise security.

AICPA SOC for Service Organizations

SOC 2 Type II

Start with one process.
We’ll run it on Lexcel with you.

Bring a line of business or a review your team wants to move faster, and we’ll walk through it on the workbench, from the first email to your systems.